Since the historic election which gave the SNP a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament, the constitutional future of Scotland has been brought to the fore. Scottish voters have demonstrated their determination to set out their own future and construct their own agenda for the first time, in the face of the vastly unpopular ConDem government in Westminster. Few issues in Scotland (indeed across the UK) have divided opinion as bitterly as this issue. However, now more than ever, Scots are increasingly questioning the ‘too poor, too stupid, too small’ mantra which proponents of the Union repeat with little evidence.
Indeed, the idea that Scotland’s oil has peaked appears to be inaccurate. As PricewaterhouseCoopers' study reporting that Scotland’s potential revenue from oil and gas could be around £375 billion over the next 40 years, it stands to reason that, if invested in a similar manner to the Oil Fund of Norway, this resource could provide a solid base on which Scotland’s economy would be secured. BP is investing an additional £4.5 billion in the North Sea, so clearly the potential is there for Scotland to reap significant gains were it to become independent. Between 2008 and 2009, nearly £13 billion in revenue was accrued from oil: the single biggest take in a single year since North Sea oil production began. Evidently, this will fluctuate over time. However, with oil prices in a perpetual upwards trend over the last three decades, the argument for Scotland to utilise this resource properly is stronger than ever.
It would be absurd to claim that an independent Scotland should only rely on a finite resource to sustain its economy, and this is why the nation has an eye to the future, with renewable energy production being actively championed. With the most ambitious carbon reduction targets in Europe aiming to have a minimum of 40% of energy generation coming from renewable sources by 2020 (with 100% being the desired goal), the investment to achieve these ambitions shows a clear vision for the future. A recent report from Citigroup suggested that over £4 billion of subsidies would be required for Scotland to achieve its goals if independent; it also claimed that investors would be unwilling to finance an independent Scotland. This was attacked by the Director General of the Institute of Directors, Simon Walker, who claimed that investment and jobs would be created regardless of Scotland being in or out of the union. “I think it is alarmist and overstating the problems to say don’t invest in renewable or any other area because of future constitutional possibilities,” he said. Furthermore, the report hinged on claims that England would not import energy from Scotland were it independent. Given that Scotland currently exports 20% of its total energy production to England, it seems that such a move would be highly unlikely.
However, regardless of where one stands on Scotland’s constitutional future, the behaviour of Michael Moore MP and the Scotland Office as a whole must be condemned in the strongest possible terms. In its own words, the very purpose of the Scotland Office is to represent Scotland's interests. It is therefore appalling that it should move to warn off investment in Scotland’s renewable energy sectors, particularly in light of the weak economic climate that hangs over the whole of the UK. To discourage investment in an emerging sector that will prove to be crucial in the coming years makes no sense and shows an unfortunate determination to keep Scotland in the Union at all costs.
This comes on the back of the Scottish Secretary claiming again that Scotland was too poor to fund itself and appearing to political point score by attempting to blame uncertainty over Scotland’s future as the cause of poor growth and economic uncertainty. Indeed, in releasing a press briefing headed ‘Scottish Government must explain £41 billion oil deficit’, Mr Moore conveniently ignored his own department’s figures that showed Scotland’s percentage of national debt (based on population) would be £60 billion pounds. Perhaps a press briefing from Mr Moore explaining why Scotland benefits from being a part of the United Kingdom when it is saddled with an additional £19 billion worth of debt is imminent?
The future of Scotland in or out of the Union must be debated in the coming years, but it must be done so in an honest and positive manner. The political point scoring and alarmist approach is unhelpful, misleading and non-constructive. The economic case for Scotland as an independent nation is sound and should not be undermined by those seeking to keep the Union together at all costs. If there is a positive case for staying within the union let that be the focus of the campaign, and not the politics of selling Scotland short.
Written by Owen Miller, EUSNA's Organiser and Director of Publicity
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